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Irish Housing - Historical model
Ireland Housing Market Analysis
Mortgage payments as a fraction of lifetime earnings, under historical variable rates.
Mortgage parameters
Key comparison: share of earnings to mortgage
1980 mortgage
16.8%
- Total payments
- €70,112
- Total earnings (25yr)
- €417,424
2000 mortgage
30.8%
- Total payments
- €266,531
- Total earnings (25yr)
- €864,370
2020 mortgage
29.4%
- Total payments
- €413,222
- Total earnings (25yr)
- €1,405,154
Total mortgage burden over time
Shows the total mortgage payments as a percentage of total earnings over the 25-year term.
Detailed data table
| Year | House price | House Δ% | Annual wage | Wage Δ% | Inflation % | Price/wage | Deposit | Loan amount | LTV % | Initial rate % | Initial monthly payment | Total payments (25yr) | Total interest | Total earnings (25yr) | Mortgage as % of earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1970 | €6,700 | N/A | €1,211 | 16.4% | 8.2% | 5.5x | €1,211 | €5,489 | 81.9% | 10% | €50 | €18,649 | €13,186 | €218,508 | 8.5% |
| 1971 | €7,500 | 11.9% | €1,392 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 5.4x | €1,392 | €6,108 | 81.4% | 10.5% | €58 | €20,883 | €14,801 | €235,574 | 8.9% |
| 1972 | €8,400 | 12.0% | €1,590 | 14.2% | 8.7% | 5.3x | €1,590 | €6,810 | 81.1% | 11% | €67 | €23,337 | €16,555 | €252,908 | 9.2% |
| 1973 | €9,009 | 7.2% | €1,989 | 25.1% | 11.4% | 4.5x | €1,989 | €7,020 | 77.9% | 11.5% | €71 | €24,025 | €17,033 | €270,636 | 8.9% |
| 1974 | €10,700 | 18.8% | €2,252 | 13.2% | 17.0% | 4.8x | €2,252 | €8,448 | 79.0% | 12% | €89 | €28,767 | €20,348 | €288,800 | 10.0% |
| 1975 | €13,250 | 23.8% | €2,928 | 30.0% | 20.9% | 4.5x | €2,928 | €10,322 | 77.9% | 12.5% | €113 | €34,841 | €24,551 | €307,831 | 11.3% |
| 1976 | €14,900 | 12.5% | €3,502 | 19.6% | 21.0% | 4.3x | €3,502 | €11,398 | 76.5% | 13.95% | €137 | €37,999 | €26,638 | €327,586 | 11.6% |
| 1977 | €17,600 | 18.1% | €4,111 | 17.4% | 10.5% | 4.3x | €4,111 | €13,489 | 76.6% | 13.96% | €162 | €44,129 | €30,687 | €348,574 | 12.7% |
| 1978 | €20,900 | 18.8% | €4,704 | 14.4% | 8.1% | 4.4x | €4,704 | €16,196 | 77.5% | 14.15% | €197 | €51,909 | €35,752 | €370,542 | 14.0% |
| 1979 | €25,100 | 20.1% | €5,432 | 15.5% | 15.9% | 4.6x | €5,432 | €19,668 | 78.4% | 14.15% | €239 | €61,572 | €41,943 | €393,696 | 15.6% |
| 1980 | €29,400 | 17.1% | €6,418 | 18.2% | 18.3% | 4.6x | €6,418 | €22,982 | 78.2% | 14.15% | €279 | €70,112 | €47,167 | €417,424 | 16.8% |
| 1981 | €32,900 | 11.9% | €7,473 | 16.4% | 23.1% | 4.4x | €7,473 | €25,427 | 77.3% | 16.25% | €351 | €75,419 | €50,034 | €441,211 | 17.1% |
| 1982 | €36,400 | 10.6% | €8,649 | 15.7% | 12.3% | 4.2x | €8,649 | €27,751 | 76.2% | 16.25% | €383 | €79,227 | €51,534 | €465,001 | 17.0% |
| 1983 | €38,700 | 6.3% | €9,774 | 13.0% | 10.4% | 4.0x | €9,774 | €28,926 | 74.7% | 13% | €326 | €79,322 | €50,462 | €488,631 | 16.2% |
| 1984 | €40,800 | 5.4% | €10,783 | 10.3% | 6.6% | 3.8x | €10,783 | €30,017 | 73.6% | 11.75% | €311 | €79,992 | €50,047 | €512,546 | 15.6% |
| 1985 | €41,900 | 2.7% | €11,611 | 7.7% | 5.0% | 3.6x | €11,611 | €30,289 | 72.3% | 13% | €342 | €78,753 | €48,515 | €535,045 | 14.7% |
| 1986 | €42,900 | 2.4% | €12,497 | 7.6% | 3.1% | 3.4x | €12,497 | €30,403 | 70.9% | 12.5% | €331 | €76,538 | €46,183 | €555,354 | 13.8% |
| 1987 | €42,600 | -0.7% | €13,081 | 4.7% | 3.0% | 3.3x | €13,081 | €29,519 | 69.3% | 12.5% | €322 | €71,980 | €42,510 | €574,231 | 12.5% |
| 1988 | €44,200 | 3.8% | €13,756 | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.2x | €13,756 | €30,444 | 68.9% | 9.25% | €261 | €71,777 | €41,382 | €593,168 | 12.1% |
| 1989 | €51,900 | 17.4% | €14,288 | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.6x | €14,288 | €37,612 | 72.5% | 11.4% | €380 | €87,009 | €49,458 | €612,084 | 14.2% |
| 1990 | €63,900 | 23.1% | €14,867 | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.3x | €14,867 | €49,033 | 76.7% | 12.37% | €530 | €109,926 | €60,967 | €633,146 | 17.4% |
| 1991 | €67,100 | 5.0% | €15,531 | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.3x | €15,531 | €51,569 | 76.9% | 11.95% | €541 | €111,273 | €59,778 | €653,927 | 17.0% |
| 1992 | €67,700 | 0.9% | €16,128 | 3.8% | 2.3% | 4.2x | €16,128 | €51,572 | 76.2% | 13.99% | €620 | €107,100 | €55,593 | €675,315 | 15.9% |
| 1993 | €70,400 | 4.0% | €17,035 | 5.6% | 1.6% | 4.1x | €17,035 | €53,365 | 75.8% | 13.99% | €642 | €105,215 | €51,911 | €697,147 | 15.1% |
| 1994 | €74,300 | 5.5% | €17,505 | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.2x | €17,505 | €56,795 | 76.4% | 7.49% | €419 | €105,922 | €49,187 | €719,112 | 14.7% |
| 1995 | €78,000 | 5.0% | €18,277 | 4.4% | 2.4% | 4.3x | €18,277 | €59,723 | 76.6% | 7% | €422 | €109,258 | €49,593 | €742,167 | 14.7% |
| 1996 | €88,500 | 13.5% | €18,726 | 2.5% | 1.9% | 4.7x | €18,726 | €69,774 | 78.8% | 6.75% | €482 | €125,452 | €55,742 | €765,490 | 16.4% |
| 1997 | €102,600 | 15.9% | €19,319 | 3.2% | 2.0% | 5.3x | €19,319 | €83,281 | 81.2% | 6.9% | €583 | €147,235 | €64,025 | €789,404 | 18.7% |
| 1998 | €126,300 | 23.1% | €20,153 | 4.3% | 1.6% | 6.3x | €20,153 | €106,147 | 84.0% | 5.85% | €674 | €184,145 | €78,112 | €814,286 | 22.6% |
| 1999 | €151,500 | 20.0% | €21,283 | 5.6% | 3.5% | 7.1x | €21,283 | €130,217 | 86.0% | 5.6% | €807 | €223,151 | €93,094 | €839,373 | 26.6% |
| 2000 | €179,900 | 18.7% | €22,683 | 6.6% | 5.8% | 7.9x | €22,683 | €157,217 | 87.4% | 6.09% | €1,022 | €266,531 | €109,511 | €864,370 | 30.8% |
| 2001 | €198,900 | 10.6% | €24,490 | 8.0% | 4.3% | 8.1x | €24,490 | €174,410 | 87.7% | 6.9% | €1,222 | €291,394 | €117,202 | €889,031 | 32.8% |
| 2002 | €213,000 | 7.1% | €26,079 | 6.5% | 5.0% | 8.2x | €26,079 | €186,921 | 87.8% | 4.7% | €1,060 | €305,858 | €119,168 | €912,973 | 33.5% |
| 2003 | €234,700 | 10.2% | €27,858 | 6.8% | 2.0% | 8.4x | €27,858 | €206,842 | 88.1% | 4.2% | €1,115 | €336,616 | €130,031 | €936,440 | 35.9% |
| 2004 | €263,900 | 12.4% | €29,160 | 4.7% | 2.5% | 9.1x | €29,160 | €234,740 | 89.0% | 3.49% | €1,174 | €381,344 | €146,895 | €959,266 | 39.8% |
| 2005 | €277,800 | 5.3% | €30,206 | 3.6% | 2.5% | 9.2x | €30,206 | €247,594 | 89.1% | 3.65% | €1,260 | €403,702 | €156,416 | €981,956 | 41.1% |
| 2006 | €311,400 | 12.1% | €31,263 | 3.5% | 5.0% | 10.0x | €31,263 | €280,137 | 90.0% | 4.86% | €1,615 | €457,949 | €178,161 | €1,004,792 | 45.6% |
| 2007 | €322,600 | 3.6% | €32,279 | 3.3% | 4.6% | 10.0x | €32,279 | €290,321 | 90.0% | 5.46% | €1,776 | €471,566 | €181,606 | €1,027,790 | 45.9% |
| 2008 | €308,400 | -4.4% | €33,689 | 4.4% | 1.1% | 9.2x | €33,689 | €274,711 | 89.1% | 5.86% | €1,747 | €441,329 | €166,958 | €1,051,020 | 42.0% |
| 2009 | €265,900 | -13.8% | €33,282 | -1.2% | -5.0% | 8.0x | €33,282 | €232,618 | 87.5% | 4.16% | €1,248 | €368,416 | €136,085 | €1,074,115 | 34.3% |
| 2010 | €232,100 | -12.7% | €31,920 | -4.1% | 1.4% | 7.3x | €31,920 | €200,180 | 86.2% | 4.02% | €1,059 | €316,479 | €116,545 | €1,098,923 | 28.8% |
| 2011 | €224,900 | -3.1% | €31,374 | -1.7% | 2.4% | 7.2x | €31,374 | €193,526 | 86.0% | 4.42% | €1,067 | €305,757 | €112,470 | €1,126,428 | 27.1% |
| 2012 | €213,500 | -5.1% | €32,017 | 2.1% | 1.1% | 6.7x | €32,017 | €181,483 | 85.0% | 4.33% | €991 | €285,682 | €104,424 | €1,155,846 | 24.7% |
| 2013 | €221,100 | 3.6% | €32,672 | 2.0% | 0.2% | 6.8x | €32,672 | €188,428 | 85.2% | 4.38% | €1,035 | €295,732 | €107,537 | €1,186,017 | 24.9% |
| 2014 | €238,200 | 7.7% | €35,350 | 8.2% | -0.2% | 6.7x | €35,350 | €202,850 | 85.2% | 4.2% | €1,093 | €317,300 | €114,699 | €1,216,964 | 26.1% |
| 2015 | €253,900 | 6.6% | €35,648 | 0.8% | 0.1% | 7.1x | €35,648 | €218,252 | 86.0% | 4.05% | €1,158 | €340,718 | €122,735 | €1,246,695 | 27.3% |
| 2016 | €273,000 | 7.5% | €36,920 | 3.6% | 0.0% | 7.4x | €36,920 | €236,080 | 86.5% | 3.61% | €1,196 | €368,262 | €132,474 | €1,277,625 | 28.8% |
| 2017 | €285,500 | 4.6% | €37,960 | 2.8% | 0.4% | 7.5x | €37,960 | €247,540 | 86.7% | 3.44% | €1,231 | €387,191 | €139,958 | €1,308,812 | 29.6% |
| 2018 | €296,200 | 3.7% | €39,000 | 2.7% | 0.6% | 7.6x | €39,000 | €257,200 | 86.8% | 3.21% | €1,248 | €403,996 | €147,115 | €1,340,526 | 30.1% |
| 2019 | €295,700 | -0.2% | €40,560 | 4.0% | 1.3% | 7.3x | €40,560 | €255,140 | 86.3% | 3.02% | €1,213 | €403,245 | €148,423 | €1,372,801 | 29.4% |
| 2020 | €301,000 | 1.8% | €41,600 | 2.6% | -0.9% | 7.2x | €41,600 | €259,400 | 86.2% | 2.92% | €1,219 | €413,222 | €154,146 | €1,405,154 | 29.4% |
| 2021 | €326,000 | 8.3% | €42,640 | 2.5% | 5.6% | 7.6x | €42,640 | €283,360 | 86.9% | 2.8% | €1,314 | €455,420 | €172,417 | €1,438,144 | 31.7% |
| 2022 | €357,000 | 9.5% | €44,200 | 3.7% | 8.1% | 8.1x | €44,200 | €312,800 | 87.6% | 3.5% | €1,566 | €507,817 | €195,413 | €1,471,809 | 34.5% |
| 2023 | €370,000 | 3.6% | €45,240 | 2.4% | 4.6% | 8.2x | €45,240 | €324,760 | 87.8% | 4.07% | €1,727 | €529,813 | €205,464 | €1,505,667 | 35.2% |
| 2024 | €380,000 | 2.7% | €46,280 | 2.3% | 1.4% | 8.2x | €46,280 | €333,720 | 87.8% | 4.16% | €1,791 | €544,791 | €211,494 | €1,540,280 | 35.4% |
Calculation methodology
How the variable-rate model is built.
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Calculation methodology
How the variable-rate model is built.
- Variable rate mortgage: interest rate changes each year to match historical rates for the duration of the loan.
- Payment recalculation: each year, the monthly payment recalculates based on remaining principal, remaining term, and the current year's interest rate.
- Total payments: sum of all annual mortgage payments over the 25-year term.
- Total earnings: sum of average annual wages over the 25-year mortgage period, tracking historical data.
- Mortgage as % of earnings: fraction of total lifetime earnings (during the mortgage term) that went to housing payments.
- Key insight: high initial rates with rapid wage growth (1980s) can still result in manageable lifetime burdens compared with lower-rate, high-price eras (2020s).
- Extrapolation: beyond 2024, interest rates stay at 2024 levels while wages grow annually at approximately 1.023x.